Vice President of IMANI Africa, Kofi Bentil, has pushed back against growing commentary questioning Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia’s viability as a presidential candidate. He said data, political history, and resilience under scrutiny all point to one conclusion that Bawumia remains the strongest contender within the New Patriotic Party (NPP).
Speaking on KeyPoints with Alfred Ocansey, Bentil cautioned against what he described as self interested political advice, warning parties not to be swayed by voices that do not have their best interests at heart. It is not wise to take the advice of the fox when he tells you where to store your chicken, Bentil said on January 3.
He stressed that political strategy must be driven by evidence, not sentiments. Bentil acknowledged the role of faith in leadership but argued that elections are ultimately won on data, outcomes, and voter behaviour, not prophecy or emotional attachment. I believe in God, and I believe in data, he stated. Polling is a science. You ignore it at your own risk, Bentil added.
According to him, how data is interpreted may be debated, but its value cannot be dismissed, especially in a highly competitive political environment. Drawing comparisons with global politics, including recent developments in the United States, Bentil noted that political parties routinely make tough strategic decisions based on viability rather than popularity alone.
He argued that Dr. Bawumia has already undergone a level of scrutiny that few politicians in Ghanaian history have faced. This is a man who just went through an election where every aspect of his life, including how his wife dresses, was placed under intense public scrutiny, Bentil said. Despite that, Bentil noted, Bawumia remains one of the most popular politicians in the country.
Bentil urged Ghanaians to place Bawumia’s political journey in context, highlighting his longevity and resilience. He has stayed in the political frontline for about 20 years, served eight years as Vice President in a government that was just voted out, yet he remains the most popular. That should tell you something about the quality of that man, he emphasized.
He dismissed suggestions that other potential contenders could withstand similar pressure, arguing that popularity without scrutiny does not automatically translate into electoral success. The IMANI Africa Vice President suggested that some voices calling for a change in candidate may be motivated by partisan interests rather than genuine concern for the NPP’s electoral prospects.
The latest National Tracking Poll by Global InfoAnalytics, conducted from December 1 to December 21, 2025, reveals Dr. Bawumia securing 56% support among all voters, a significant 28 point lead over his nearest rival, Kennedy Agyapong, who stands at 28%. Dr. Bryan Acheampong and Dr. Yaw Osei Adutwum are tied at 6% each, with Kwabena Agyapong at 4%.
The former Vice President’s lead grows even more substantial within the party’s own ranks. A decisive 72% of NPP voters back Dr. Bawumia, solidifying his frontrunner status ahead of the crucial internal election on January 31, 2026. Among party voters, Kennedy Agyapong garners 19%, followed by Dr. Bryan Acheampong at 4%, Dr. Yaw Osei Adutwum at 2%, and Kwabena Agyapong at 1%.
The Global InfoAnalytics poll, supervised by renowned Ghanaian pollster Mussa Dankwah, was conducted using a combination of telephone, face to face and web based interviews. The poll had respondents from across the 16 regions of Ghana and carries a 99% confidence level with a margin of error of ±1.1%.
Dr. Bawumia’s support transcends regional boundaries, according to the survey. In the swing regions of Greater Accra, Central, and Western, the former Vice President leads with 57%, while Kennedy Agyapong secured 32%, Dr. Yaw Adutwum 4%, Dr. Bryan Acheampong 4%, and Kwabena Agyapong 3%. The poll suggests that in the event of a runoff between Bawumia and Agyapong, the former Vice President would lead with 62% against 38%.
A significant finding from the poll is Dr. Bawumia’s performance among disgruntled NPP voters in the Ashanti Region who voted for the National Democratic Congress’s (NDC) John Dramani Mahama in the last election. While this group is more split nationally, a striking 63% of these voters in Ashanti prefer Dr. Bawumia to lead the NPP, suggesting he is the most potent candidate to reunify the party’s base in its heartland.
The data also shows that among 2024 Bawumia voters, an overwhelming 89% remain committed to supporting him in the NPP internal race. His ability to maintain such overwhelming loyalty from his previous voters gives him a formidable foundation heading into the internal elections. Among 2024 Kennedy Agyapong supporters in the NPP flagbearer race, 54% now say they would vote for Bawumia in the upcoming primary.
Bentil’s remarks come amid increasing debate within the NPP about the party’s strategy for the 2028 elections. Some party members, including flagbearer aspirant Dr. Bryan Acheampong, have cautioned against fielding Dr. Bawumia again, arguing that the party needs a fresh candidate who can distance the formation from the governance record of the previous administration.
However, Bentil’s analysis suggests that such concerns may be misplaced. He pointed to Bawumia’s 41% performance in the 2024 presidential election as evidence of his enduring strength, noting that this was achieved despite deep anger and disaffection from all sides, including NPP members who did not vote. The former Vice President garnered over 4.6 million votes in the December 7, 2024 election, losing to President John Dramani Mahama.
The NPP will hold its flagbearer election on January 31, 2026, to select a candidate to lead the party into the 2028 general elections. Five candidates have filed nominations for the race: Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, Kennedy Agyapong, Dr. Bryan Acheampong, Dr. Yaw Osei Adutwum, and Kwabena Agyapong. The party has commenced a nationwide exhibition of the voter register to ensure transparency in the internal election process.
Dr. Bawumia, addressing delegates during his campaign, has argued that presenting a new candidate for 2028 would signal that the NPP is not serious about recapturing power. He emphasized that his experience, name recognition, and existing support base position him as the most viable option for the party. Place your bet on me, and I will not disappoint you, he told supporters.
Bentil’s fox and chicken metaphor appears directed at voices from outside the NPP, particularly from the ruling NDC, who have suggested that the opposition party should change its candidate. The IMANI Vice President’s argument is that political opponents naturally prefer to face weaker challengers, making their candidate advice inherently suspect.
The debate within the NPP reflects broader questions about political strategy following electoral defeat. While some argue for a fresh start with a new candidate, others contend that Bawumia’s experience, tested support base, and proven ability to withstand scrutiny make him the party’s best bet for 2028, particularly as the economy stabilizes and memories of the previous administration’s challenges fade.
Bentil concluded by emphasizing that whatever decision the NPP makes must be grounded in objective analysis of electoral data and strategic considerations, rather than emotions or external pressure. He maintained that the polling evidence overwhelmingly supports Bawumia as the party’s strongest candidate for the 2028 contest.
