Development Discourse with Amos SAFO: Unprecedented crisis in the cocoa sector

On Thursday February 12, 2025, President John Mahama convened an emergency cabinet meeting to discuss what has emerged as an unprecedented crisis in the cocoa sector. For the first time since independence in 1957, a government has failed to pay cocoa farmers after buying and stocking their cocoa for four months.

As if the failure to pay was not enough, cabinet also approved the reduction of a bag of cocoa from GHS3,625 to GH¢2,587, a 28 percent deduction, and a loss of GHS1000 to cocoa farmers. This decision was made against the backdrop of election promises that the current government made to improve the livelihoods of cocoa farmers while in opposition in 2024.

Election promises

In the heat of election 2024, then presidential candidate of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) John Mahama told cocoa farmers that the price of a bag of cocoa was low and promised the farmers that he would pay farmers 70 percent of the world market price of a ton of cocoa. “Our cocoa farmers deserve dignity and fair reward”, he emphasized.

He further assured them that a new Cocobod leadership under his government would prioritise the distribution of improved seedlings, improved extension services and adequate compensations for rehabilitated cocoa farms.  He further advised cocoa farmers to expand their farms in anticipation of huge cocoa prices when he becomes the president. “We will give you very good prices, so those who have no cocoa farms should start looking for land”, he emphasized.

Following on the heels of candidate John Mahama, Cassiel Ato Forson, then Minority Leader and Eric Opoku, then Minority Spokesman of agriculture made unrealistic promises to cocoa farmers. On a campaign platform, Dr. Forson described the Akufo-Addo government as insensitive to the plight of cocoa farmers, because it failed to give cocoa farmers two-thirds of world market price of a ton of cocoa.

He therefore promised the farmers that his government would give them the two-thirds the Akufo-Addo government denied them. “This government does not think about the welfare of farmers, President Mahama assures you that when he comes to office, he will increase cocoa prices appreciably”, he assured the farmers.

Dr. Forson further promised to provide free fertilizers, free spraying services, and free education for the children of farmers. He stated that historically, cocoa has been the backbone of Ghana’s economy, and for that reason, his government would give the farmers what they deserve.

Dr. Forson finally promised GHS6,000 per bag of cocoa if his party (NDC) is elected. Similarly, Mr. Eric Opoku affirmed that when voted to power the NDC government would improve the earnings and wellbeing of cocoa farmers. He promised GHS7,000 per bag of cocoa, as well as a comprehensive insurance coverage for farmers and their families. While the audience applauded, they failed to admit that Ghana already has a comprehensive insurance policy for Ghanaians.

It is interesting to note that while President Mahama did not mention any amount, Ato Forson and Eric Opoku enthusiastically offered different figures. That was political propaganda at its best.  It is obvious that the huge promises NDC made to cocoa farmers influenced the pattern of voting in the cocoa farming constituencies in favour of NDC.

Failed promises

Interestingly, after winning power, President Mahama appointed Dr. Ato Forson as the Minister of Finance and Eric Opoku as the Minister of Agriculture. They were the two most vociferous communicators on the cocoa and agriculture sector, who were rightly given the mandate   to oversee the cocoa sub-sector of Ghana’s economy.

They were also given power  to deliver the unrealistic promises they made to cocoa farmers.  However, a year after assuming office it appears the President John Mahama, Ato Forson and Eric Opoku have failed to honour their promises. To begin with, in 2025 they increased the price of a bag of cocoa marginally from GHS3100 to GHS3625.

The marginal increase drew angry responses from cocoa farmers, who described the outcome as another election scam. Rather than maintaining the marginal increase, the government slashed it by 28 percent to GH¢2,587 per bag of cocoa. As if that was not enough, the government also failed to pay farmers for cocoa the Licensed Buying Companies (LDCs) bought since November 2025.

This translates to four months of money Ghana Cocoa Board owes the farmers. Thus, many farmers did not enjoy Christmas in 2025 and are reportedly facing financial challenges. The plight of cocoa farmers comes against the backdrop of President Mahama’s promise to give them 70 percent of world cocoa prices per ton. This is because the promises President Mahama, Ato Forson and Eric Opoku made were not backed by any credible data.

Financial crisis

It is obvious that the Ghana Cocoa Board, the government agency that regulates the cocoa sector is in serious financial crisis. Some financial analysts have attributed Cocobod’s failure to Bank of Ghana’s decision to release more than $10 billion into the exchange market to secure the stability of the cedi. Over the years, exchange rate management has become an election issue, with both the NDC and the current opposition of New Patriotic Party (NPP) using it to their advantage.

Haven ridden to power on the back of poor exchange rate management by the NPP, the NDC’s decided to back the cedi to appreciate against the dollar.  In that case they would be seen as better managers of the economy.

This policy, however, has a damaging effect on the country’s major exports like cocoa. A stronger cedi thus means that Cocobod would make huge loses when cocoa dollars are converted to cedis. Eventually, the artificial support for the cedi is undermining Ghana’s exports and foreign exchange revenue.

Many analysts argue given what is unfolding in the cocoa sector, it is imprudent for the Bank of Ghana to continue propping the cedi against the dollar. Industry stakeholders have indicated that the biggest challenge facing the struggling cocoa sector is the failure of Ghana to process most of her cocoa into finished or semi-finished products.

Since independence, Ghana has been exporting a chunk of raw cocoa beans at a world market which is determined by consuming countries. Ghana currently processes between 30% of its cocoa beans locally, although it has an installed capacity of about 504,780 metric tons.

This explains why Ghana has not been able to dictate the world price. A key outcome of the crisis meeting on February 12 was government’s promise to process at least 50% of all cocoa beans within the country starting from the 2026/2027 crop season. I hope this is not just a knee jerk or panic response, because past governments made similar promises, yet failed  to increase processing.

Future market

Another factor that has caused the crisis in the cocoa sector is the failure of Cocobod to sell the beans last year, when the price per ton of cocoa was around $8,000. Perhaps, the decision was taken in anticipation of more price increases, but unfortunately, the forecast failed as prices tumbled in the latter part of 2025.

Instead of telling Ghanaians the truth about the impact of the exchange on cocoa sales, both the Chief Executive Officer of Cocobod, Dr. Randy Abbey and the Finance Minister, Dr. Ato Forson have taken turns to blame the past government for the woes of the sector. In various communications the CEO of Cocobod and the minister of finance accused the past government of leaving huge debts in the books of Cocobod, which is the reason the government is unable to pay cocoa farmers.

Dr. Abbey further alleged that the past government defaulted in paying the syndicated loans it contracted during the 2023-2024 season. He argued that the previous government’s default made it impossible for the current government to access a syndicated loan.

However, in response, the NPP explained that it neither defaulted in paying any syndicated loan, nor did it leave any debts. ‘Let him provide the evidence of how much was contracted and how much was defaulted”, the NPP’s spokesman for Agriculture, Mr. Opoku Yaw Isaac threw the challenge.

He explained that this is not the first time cocoa prices have dopped. According to him in 2017, when the NPP came to office, world market prices of cocoa tumbled from $3000 to $1000 per ton, which was not enough to pay cocoa farmers anything significant, yet his government found the money to pay them. He stated that governments come to power to solve problems, and not to make noise or shift the blame.

Contract rollover

On the issue of contract rollovers, he said it is an industry practice and recalled that in 2017, the NPP inherited a contract rollover of 190,280 metric tons of cocoa left by the NDC but, NPP did not make any noise. Historically, cocoa sales have been based on future sales, which enables governments to make huge gains on previous and prevailing prices. The NPP spokesman revealed that in the past governments sold more than 70 percent in advance, while the 30 percent was kept to meet future demands.

This system guaranteed high future prices to meet the needs of farmers. Mr. Opoku recalled that while in opposition, NDC criticized and politicized the future sales policy. Little wonder that it abolished it as soon as it came to power.

Thus, it sold only about 30 percent of the crop in 2025, while 70 percent was held for future sales. Unfortunately, NDC’s forecast that prices would remain high for them to make a huge profit backfired when the price per ton of cocoa dropped from $8000 to $4000. This perhaps is the reason behind the reduction of the bag of cocoa from GHS 3625 to GH¢2,587, a 28 percent decrease. “This has never happened in the history of Ghana”, Mr. Opoku emphasized.

Infighting

Mr. Opoku indicated that another cause of the financial crisis at cocobod is the infighting between the CEO of Cocobod and the Managing Director of Cocoa Marketing Company. The battle for turf has disorganized cocoa purchasing and pricing, which is undertaken by the pricing committee. This has stalled critical decisions on buying and selling the commodity.

NPP revealed that the NDC had promised in its manifesto to facilitate the timely purchases and payment of cocoa farmers when elected. NDC further promised to stop the wasteful expenditure at Cocobod to save funds to pay appreciable prices to farmers; yet the NPP alleged that the current leadership of Cocobod recently bought 150 luxury four-wheel drives for its management members.

This purchase was done at the time Cocobo owed farmers millions of cedis since November 2025. This explains why opposition MPs are demanding the dismissal of CEO of Cocobod, Dr. Randy Abbey.

Furthermore, the opposition argue that the delay in paying the licensed buyers was eroding the capital of indigenous businesses, contrary to NDC’s promises to support indigenous businesses. “We demand an apology from the government and Cocobod for gross dereliction of duty. Cocoa farmers are not beggars, paying cocoa farmers is not a favour”, the NPP spokesman stated.

Farmers’ response

In response to the ongoing crisis many farmers are using social media to agitate for fairness and equity in the revenue of cocoa. Some farmers have indicated that they were considering selling their beans to buyers in Togo and Ivory Coast, where they can get better prices. An elderly female cocoa farmer aged 81, in a social media post said this was the first time she had witnessed a government’s failure to pay farmers after four months of purchasing their beans.

Similarly, a cocoa purchasing clerk explained that in his 24 years as a cocoa buyer, he had never encountered a government’s failure to pay cocoa farmers. “This is the first time cocoa farmers are chasing me for their money”, he said in another social media post. Another farmer said, “I have no motivation, when I am drying my cocoa beans because of how the current government has treated me.”

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