Fianna Fail is the largest party in Ireland on 48 seats out of 174 in parliament, with Sinn Fein on 39 and Fine Gael on 38.
Fianna Fail also secured the most first preference votes in Friday’s vote, taking 21.9% to Fine Gael’s 20.8%. Sinn Fein came in third on 19%.
The result, after three days of counting, paves the way for a Fianna Fail-Fine Gael coalition in government with either a handful of independents or a third party. The two centre-right parties had previously said they would not rule with the left-wing Sinn Fein.
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Their combined seat total of 86 would leave them just short of the 88 needed for a majority in the Dail.
Entering a coalition with independents would likely involve fewer policy concessions and financial commitments than may be required to convince another party to join the government benches.
Nine independents joined a Fine Gael-led minority government in 2016, with three serving in ministerial positions.
Micheal Martin, Mary Lou McDonald and Simon Harris during the final TV leaders’ debate before polling day. Pic: PA
The Social Democrats and the Irish Labour Party, both smaller left-wing parties, appear cautious about the prospect of an alliance with Fianna Fail and Fine Gael.
The last coalition partner, the Green Party, lost 11 out of 12 seats in this election.
While Sinn Fein appears to currently have no realistic route to government, its leader Mary Lou McDonald contacted the leaders of the Social Democrats and Labour on Monday to discuss options for forming a left-wing government.
Earlier, Fianna Fail deputy leader and outgoing finance minister Jack Chambers predicted that a new coalition government would not be in place before Christmas.
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Mr Chambers said planned talks about forming an administration required “time and space” to ensure that any new government will be “coherent and stable”.
It took almost five months for Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and the Greens to form a government after the 2020 election.
In that government, it was agreed that the leaders of the two larger parties would have a “rotating taoiseach” arrangement.
Fianna Fail leader Michael Martin took the role for the first half of the term, with Leo Varadkar taking over in December 2022. Current Fine Gael leader Simon Harris succeeded Mr Varadkar as taoiseach when he resigned earlier this year.
But as Fianna Fail has increased the number of seats it has over Fine Gael, it is unclear if this arrangement will continue.
Every government since the foundation of the state almost a century ago has been led by either Fianna Fail or Fine Gael, who are historic rivals with origins on opposing sides of Ireland’s 1920s civil war.
