Green minerals policy delay risks closing a narrow energy transition window

By Kizito CUDJOE

The country risks being locked out of the most profitable segments of the global energy transition economy if it continues to delay a clear policy framework for critical minerals, the Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI) has warned, as competing producer countries move swiftly to secure processing investments and negotiate stronger fiscal and industrial terms.

NRGI Ghana Country Manager Patrick Stephenson says the country’s window to position itself meaningfully in lithium and other transition mineral value chains is “narrow”, stressing that decisions taken over the next few years will determine whether Ghana captures long-term industrial and fiscal gains or, once again, settles for exporting raw materials while higher-value activities occur elsewhere.

The warning comes more than two years after government announced plans to develop a green minerals policy, an initiative that has yet to be completed or published.

The policy was intended to guide exploitation, management and utilisation of minerals critical to the global energy transition, particularly as the country records discoveries and rising investor interest.

The delay coincides with intensifying global competition for lithium, bauxite, iron ore and other transition minerals at a time when countries are no longer treating these resources as ordinary commodities but strategic inputs for industrial transformation, energy security and geopolitical leverage.

In May 2023, the then-Minister of Lands and Natural Resources, Samuel Abu Jinapor, disclosed that a technical committee was finalising a green minerals policy document for Cabinet consideration. The stated objective was to retain greater value domestically by discouraging raw exports and strengthening in-country processing, local participation and environmental safeguards.

Its continued absence now raises pressing questions for the current administration. Lithium, bauxite and iron underpin batteries, electric vehicles (EVs), renewable energy infrastructure and grid-scale storage – technologies that sit at the heart of the country’s own energy transition ambitions as well as its broader industrialisation agenda.

Mr. Stephenson notes that countries endowed with similar mineral resources are deliberately integrating themselves into specific segments of the energy and battery value chains. Those early movers are shaping investment flows, technology transfer and fiscal terms in ways that will define their development trajectories for decades.

For Ghana, stalling carries a cost. Operating without a clear policy weakens the state’s ability to invest in its own geological intelligence, sequence development priorities and negotiate from a position of strength as these industries mature. In effect, the longer the delay, the greater risk that the country enters the value chain late… on terms largely defined by others.

NRGI’s analysis of the country’s first lithium agreement emphasises the stakes. According to Mr. Stephenson, decisions taken between 2024 and 2026 will have long-lasting implications for value the country ultimately derives from transition minerals.

With global players racing to lock in supply, fiscal and regulatory frameworks must be deliberately designed rather than assembled reactively.

While some reforms are underway, including changes to the royalty regime and agreements currently before parliament, these measures are fragments of a broader architecture that remains incomplete. Without an overarching policy framework, such reforms risk lacking coherence and strategic direction.

Policy, Mr. Stephenson argues, is what aligns institutions. A green minerals policy would guide how government agencies negotiate, regulate and participate across the value chain. In its absence, ambiguity creates space for discretion; increasing the risk of early bargaining errors and suboptimal mineral rights outcomes.

“Even where contracts are debated publicly, the lack of a unifying framework can weaken coordination and accountability.”

A robust policy would also define how the state develops and owns geological data. That information is critical to valuation and negotiation. Without it, the country risks relying heavily on company-generated data submitted during licencing – an imbalance that can undermine bargaining power and lead to weaker fiscal outcomes.

The consequences extend beyond revenue. Fragmented institutional action raises procurement and corruption risks and can translate into weaker industrial linkages, limited local content development and missed opportunities for downstream manufacturing.

Investor confidence is also at stake. Climate finance institutions and just energy transition partners increasingly look for predictable, forward-looking national strategies. Clear policy signals are essential for investors assessing long-term commitments in processing, manufacturing and infrastructure linked to transition minerals.

Globally, resource-rich countries are being assessed not only on geological potential, but also governance, how communities are protected, how taxation is structured and how mineral exploitation connects to industrial policy and value addition.

In the absence of a green minerals policy, the country risks appearing unprepared to manage its next phase of the energy transition – potentially limiting access to concessional finance, technical assistance and green industrial partnerships.

Preparedness also encompasses environmental protection, community safeguards and equitable economic outcomes. Weak or delayed regulatory frameworks heighten risks for host communities, particularly in emerging mining zones. Tensions reported in areas such as Ewoyaa point to the importance of early engagement, clear grievance mechanisms and transparent decision-making.

Research from NRGI and others shows that poorly governed critical minerals extraction can reproduce the same failures seen in traditional extractive sectors: land displacement, inadequate compensation and environmental degradation. Avoiding those outcomes requires a clear policy that defines national objectives, community engagement standards and institutional responsibilities.

Meanwhile, licencing activity continues. Publications from the Minerals Commission show that several companies have applied for new exploration licences, including for critical minerals. Accelerating licencing without policy-defined safeguards risks locking the country into arrangements that may prove difficult to unwind.

Transparency, rules-based fiscal systems and participatory oversight are therefore not optional. They are foundational to ensuring that Ghana’s critical minerals support long-term development rather than reinforcing old extractive patterns. As the global energy transition gathers pace, the cost of delay is rising and the space for strategic correction is narrowing.

A request for information from the Ministry of Lands and Natural Resources was not honoured at the time of going to press.

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