A new nationwide survey conducted by the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung (KAS) Ghana ahead of the January 2026 New Patriotic Party (NPP) presidential primaries has identified Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia as the clear frontrunner, with strong expectations among respondents for competent, experienced and ethical leadership.
The survey, which covered more than 18,000 respondents, including over 5,000 NPP delegates and more than 13,000 non-delegates, sought to understand voter expectations and preferences as the party prepares to elect its next flagbearer.
According to KAS, the sample was highly inclusive, cutting across age groups, with the core respondents aged between 26 and 55 years, and representing urban, peri-urban and rural communities, with rural respondents accounting for 41 per cent. The respondents also reflected diverse educational, employment, religious and ethnic backgrounds.
Leadership qualities prioritised
Findings from the survey indicate that both delegates and non-delegates place a premium on competence, experience and vision in choosing the next NPP flagbearer. Competence emerged as the most important factor, accounting for 24.9 per cent of responses, followed by experience at 20.3 per cent and vision at 16.9 per cent.
Accessibility, particularly at the grassroots level, accounted for 14.1 per cent, while charisma recorded 8.5 per cent. Identity-related factors such as age, gender, religion or ethnicity collectively accounted for less than one per cent, suggesting that respondents are more focused on leadership capacity than personal background.
Perception of leading contenders
When asked which personalities best embody the desired leadership qualities, a significant majority of delegates, 69.7 per cent, identified Dr Bawumia. This was followed by Hon. Kennedy Agyapong with 22.5 per cent and Dr Bryan Acheampong with six per cent.
Among non-delegates, Dr Bawumia also led with 52.9 per cent, while Hon. Agyapong recorded 31.2 per cent and Dr Acheampong 7.9 per cent. The results suggest that while Dr Bawumia enjoys broad support across both groups, Hon. Agyapong’s appeal is relatively stronger among non-delegates.
Flagbearer preference
On the specific question of who is best suited to be the NPP flagbearer, delegates gave Dr Bawumia 67.8 per cent support, compared to 21.3 per cent for Hon. Agyapong and 6.6 per cent for Dr Acheampong. Among non-delegates, Dr Bawumia again led with 50.6 per cent, followed by Hon. Agyapong with 29.8 per cent and Dr Acheampong with 8.7 per cent.
KAS noted that the preferences of delegates are decisive, with Dr Bawumia currently leading by a three-to-one margin, positioning him as the overwhelming favourite if the primaries were held today.
High delegate interest
The survey also revealed strong interest among party delegates in the upcoming contest. About 84.5 per cent of NPP delegates said they were very interested in the primaries, while 91.6 per cent indicated they were likely or very likely to vote. In contrast, only 37 per cent of non-delegates expressed strong interest.
KAS said the survey forms part of its broader commitment to promoting democracy, good governance and informed political dialogue in Ghana through evidence-based research.
