Q4 2025 growth accelerates to 5.8%, full-year expansion hits 6% ahead of MPC decision

By Juliet ETEFE

The economy recorded a year-on-year growth of 5.8 percent in fourth quarter-2025, pushing full-year expansion to 6 percent according to provisional data released by Ghana Statistical Service (GSS).

The latest outturn reflects an improvement from the 4 percent growth recorded in the same period of 2024, underscoring strengthening economic activity toward year-end. In nominal terms, gross domestic product (GDP) for the quarter rose to GH¢377.4billion from GH¢331.7billion a year earlier, while real GDP increased to GH¢56.4billion from GH¢53.3billion.

Non-oil economic activity remained the primary driver of growth, expanding by 7.1 percent in the fourth quarter compared to 4.8 percent for the corresponding period of 2024.

The latest data come ahead of the central bank’s 129th Monetary Policy Committee meeting, from 15 to 18 March. The committee is expected to assess the strength of recovery against emerging external risks.

BoG Governor Dr. Johnson Pandit Asiama noted that while inflation has eased sharply to 3.3 percent and economic activity is strengthening, rising geopolitical tensions and oil price volatility could pose renewed inflationary pressures. The Committee is therefore expected to weigh sustaining recent gains against the need for caution in an increasingly uncertain global environment.

Services drive expansion

Sectoral performance shows the services sector retained its position as the main engine of growth, expanding by 8.6 percent year-on-year. The sector accounted for 50.6 percent of total GDP and contributed 63.4 percent to overall growth.

Agriculture recorded improved performance, growing by 5.3 percent – up from 3.2 percent a year earlier. The sector accounted for 19.9 percent of GDP and contributed 20.9 percent to growth, supported largely by crop production including a recovery in cocoa output.

Industry posted a modest recovery, growing by 1.9 percent compared to 0.3 percent in the same period of 2024. However, its performance remained constrained by a sharp contraction in oil and gas production. The sector accounted for 29.6 percent of GDP and contributed 9.4 percent to overall growth.

Sub-sector trends mixed

At the sub-sector level, information and communication recorded the strongest growth at 28.3 percent – reflecting sustained expansion in digital and telecommunications services.

Other notable performers included public administration, defence and social security (11.8%), education (11.3%), transport and storage (10.6%) and electricity (7.2%).

However, some sub-sectors contracted – including forestry and logging (-10.4%), accommodation and food services (-4.5%), water supply and waste management (-4%) and real estate (-2%), pointing to persistent pockets of weakness.

Economic activity accelerates in December

Data from the Monthly Indicator of Economic Growth (MIEG) signalled a strong end-year surge in activity.

The index rose to 123.9 in December 2025 from 112.5 a year earlier, translating into year-on-year growth of 10.1 percent. Within the quarter, growth was recorded at 4.5 percent for October, 2.7 percent in November and accelerated sharply to 10.1 percent by December.

Services led the December expansion with 12.9 percent growth, followed by agriculture (5.7%) and industry (4.3%).

Annual growth at 6%

For the full year economic expansion was 6 percent in 2025, slightly higher than 2024’s 5.8 percent.

Nominal GDP increased to GH¢1.434trillion from GH¢1.183trillion, while real GDP rose to GH¢209.6billion from GH¢197.9billion. Non-oil GDP growth remained robust at 7.6 percent.

The services sector remained the largest contributor to economic activity, accounting for 45.9 percent of GDP and contributing 58.2 percent to overall growth with an annual growth rate of 8.1 percent.

Agriculture grew by 6.8 percent, contributing 23.7 percent to growth and accounting for 22.8 percent of GDP while industry growth slowed to 2.3 percent from 7.2 percent in 2024 – reflecting continued weakness in oil and gas.

Key growth drivers

Five activities – information and communication, crops, gold, manufacturing and transport and storage – accounted for 79.1 percent of total GDP growth in 2025.

Information and communication alone contributed 23.7 percent, followed by crops (19.8%), gold (16.6%), manufacturing (10.5%) and transport and storage (8.5%).

Policy and business implications

This GSS data highlight the growing importance of services and agriculture in driving economic expansion, alongside sustained resilience in non-oil sectors.

GSS emphasised the need for targetted policy support to high-performing sectors such as agriculture, information and communication, manufacturing, education and logistics, while addressing structural weaknesses in oil and gas and other underperforming areas.

For businesses, the outlook points to emerging opportunities in digital services, manufacturing, transport and logistics, education and agricultural value chains.

Households, meanwhile, are encouraged to prioritise savings and skills development to strengthen resilience amid evolving economic conditions.

Outlook

While the data signal a strengthening growth trajectory, risks remain from continued volatility in the oil and gas sector and contractions in select sub-sectors, which could weigh on the pace of expansion in the near-term.

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