Frenetic shuttle diplomacy is under way to end the war in Gaza and avert an Iranian and Hezbollah attack on Israel.
But there remains a wide gap between Hamas and Israel on the face of it.
Hamas wants Israel’s military out of Gaza and not coming back before it gives up the Israeli hostages it has held since 7 October.
Palestinians at the site of an Israeli airstrike in central Gaza on Saturday. Pic: Reuters
Israel wants guarantees that if it does, Hamas cannot then regroup, get strong again and carry out another such attack as its leaders have repeatedly threatened.
The Americans are pushing what they call a “bridging proposal”. It focuses on two strips of land or corridors.
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‘Israeli PM making ceasefire more complicated’
The Philadelphi corridor that separates Gaza from Egypt is the main way of Hamas smuggling in weapons and personnel.
A “technical” solution is proposed to address Israeli concerns over withdrawing from there.
More of a problem is the Netzarim corridor. It bisects Gaza about two thirds of the way up, from the border with Israel to the sea.
Israel wanted to keep soldiers there to stop Hamas flooding the north of Gaza again with fighters.
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Israeli media reports say the proposed deal would allow Israel to send troops back in if Hamas fighters return to the north.
That is the diplomacy, and at the moment it focuses on efforts to thrash out those ideas with Israel. Hence, US secretary of state Anthony Blinken’s 10th visit to Israel since the war began.
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Blinken travels to Israel
If Israel accepts the proposal, Egypt and Qatar will try to persuade Hamas to accept it.
Israeli commentators, though, say politics could still scupper the deal.
They are not convinced Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to make the concessions required, fearful his far-right partners in government will collapse his government.
And critics say the US and regional powers negotiating the deal should be applying more pressure.
America should threaten Israel, they say, with the suspension of military aid, while Qatar and Egypt should threaten Hamas with punitive measures if they reject the deal.
There is a huge amount at stake, a huge amount of diplomacy under way, but many ifs and buts remain if any of this is to end in a ceasefire.
