…EU regulation changes in 2025
By Joshua Worlasi AMLANU & Ebenezer Chike Adjei NJOKU
The local cocoa industry is bracing for significant shifts this year, as market dynamics and regulatory pressures converge.
Analysts’ projections at the beginning of final quarter-2024 suggested cocoa prices could rise to as high as US$9,600 per metric tonne (pmt) in 2025, on account of tight global supply conditions.
This figure was surpassed in December 2024 when it reached US$11,925.
On January 8, 2025, March ICE NY cocoa futures closed at US$10,984.81 per metric tonne – reflecting a 1.68 percent decrease from the previous day.
In December 2024, the global cocoa price reached US$10.32 per kilogramme – marking a 30.73 percent increase from November 2024 and a 145.2 percent rise from December 2023.
The aforementioned constraints are exacerbated by adverse weather and illegal gold mining activities, which have affected farmland availability.
This forecast comes after a dramatic price-surge in 2024, when cocoa prices nearly doubled year-to-date by mid-November; reaching US$8,523 from an initial US$4,916. This 73.4 percent rise was driven by supply shortfalls in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, intensified by El Niño’s impact on yields and growing global demand for chocolate.
According to Databank in its 2025 projections, “The European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), effective in early 2025, will further restrict supply availability; likely keeping prices elevated amid strong global demand for chocolate”.
The domestic market has been saddled with funding issues – inefficiency on the part of industry regulator Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) being cited as a major factor.
Last year, it struggled to raise the annual syndicated loan from its usual partners. These and related reasons have contributed to local farmers failing to benefit from the windfall occasioned by increasing prices.
In September 2024, Cocobod announced a significant increase in the price of cocoa for the 2024-2025 season, pegging the price at GH¢48,000 per tonne. This translated to GH¢3,000 per 64-kilogramme bag of cocoa, marking a 129.36 percent increase from the previous season.
Civil society however argued that the price, which translated to approximately US$185 at the time, fell short of what the farmers were due.
EU’s Deforestation Regulation to reshape industry
The impending EUDR introduces stringent requirements for cocoa producers, demanding that commodities entering the EU market be traceable and proven to be deforestation-free post-December 2020. While the regulation seeks to curb environmental degradation, it poses substantial challenges for the local cocoa sector.
Traceability remains a critical hurdle. An analysis contained in a Tropical Forest Alliance (TFA) paper on the EUDR indicated that in 2023, while 80 percent of cocoa exports from the country could be linked to a company that publicly discloses some supply chain information, there is only sufficient data to link it back to the district where it was produced for a “mere 9 percent of exports”.
Land ownership and tree tenure systems further complicate compliance. Under Ghana’s Concessions Act, naturally occurring trees on private land are vested in the state – often disincentivising farmers from preserving such trees.
According to Abraham Baffoe, Executive Director-Proforest as quoted in the TFA paper titled ‘How To Make Europe’s Deforestation Regulation Work’: “Government has recently established a Tree Tenure and Benefit Sharing mechanism that should ensure farmers and communities benefit from the trees growing on their farms, but it will take time to be effectively implemented”.
Smallholder farmers bear the compliance burden
Smallholders, who account for nearly all cocoa production in the country, face the most significant challenges under the new regulation. Over 800,000 farmers depend on cocoa farming, with the industry employing 3.2 million people or 17 percent of the working population. Many are unaware of EUDR requirements or the technicalities of traceability.
“The message is simple: if you want to sell to Europe, you must stop cutting trees,” Mr. Baffoe noted. However, misconceptions persist, such as the belief that ‘sun cocoa’ is superior to ‘shade cocoa’ despite evidence from the International Cocoa Organisation that shaded environments are essential for optimal yields.
Efforts to educate farmers are gaining momentum. Organisations like Proforest, in collaboration with the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD), are providing training on sustainable practices. Platforms such as the Africa Sustainable Commodities Initiative (ASCI) are also engaging producers through workshops to facilitate compliance.
State interventions and funding gaps
Government has initiated a National Cocoa Management System (NCMS), including a Cocoa Traceability System, to meet EUDR requirements. This system aims to map cocoa farms and ensure compliance with deforestation-free standards. While promising, implementation remains resource-intensive.
“To implement traceability on the ground, we need a digital ID for every farmer, tags for every bag of EUDR-compliant cocoa, dedicated centres in all cocoa districts… and we need this all in one go, now!” Mr. Baffoe added.
Financial constraints pose a significant barrier. While the European Forest Institute and philanthropic organisations like the Walmart Foundation have provided support, stakeholders are calling for broader financial assistance. “Proforest’s work with the Ghana government is being supported by Walmart Foundation. They are offering fantastic support to smallholder farmers,” he further stated.
Stakeholders emphasise that compliance requires a collective approach. The Asunafo-Asutifi landscape initiative, part of the Ghana Cocoa Forest REDD+ Programme, exemplifies collaborative efforts to align agricultural production with forest conservation.
“If we had allowed things to simply go the way as designed by the EU, it would only have resulted in companies working within their own supply chains – but that does not solve the issue,” Mr. Baffoe insisted, arguing for landscape-level initiatives aimed at tackling deforestation across entire jurisdictions.
