By Ashiadey Dotse
The opposition New Patriotic Party (NPP) is projected to increase its parliamentary seats from 88 to 100 in the 2028 general elections, while the governing National Democratic Congress (NDC) could lose 31 seats, according to a new projection by Global InfoAnalytics.
The research organisation’s first parliamentary seat projection for the 2028 elections estimates that the NDC’s current 185 seats could decline to 154, although the party is expected to maintain its majority in Parliament.
Under the projection, the NDC is expected to secure 55.8% of parliamentary seats, compared with 36.2% for the NPP.
The estimates suggest that although the NDC could retain control of Parliament, its majority may be significantly reduced, potentially strengthening the NPP’s position as the main opposition party.
However, Global InfoAnalytics says the outcome of 22 constituencies remains uncertain.
Of the 22 seats, 20 have been classified as “not disclosed” because voting preferences in those constituencies have not been made public, while two others have been identified as toss-up seats, meaning either party could win.
The Eastern Region has the highest number of undisclosed constituencies, with five, followed by the Ashanti Region with four and the Western Region with three.
The Upper East Region has two undisclosed constituencies, while the Central, Greater Accra, Oti, Upper West, Western North and Bono regions each have one.
The two toss-up constituencies are located in the Ashanti and Bono regions.
According to the research organisation, the 20 undisclosed seats represent 7.2% of Parliament, while the two toss-up constituencies account for 0.7%.
The projection was generated using Global InfoAnalytics’ Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (MRP) model, which is used to estimate voting patterns and possible election outcomes.
The research firm, however, cautioned that the figures are estimates and should not be treated as a definite prediction of the 2028 parliamentary election results.
It said the 20 undisclosed constituencies and the two closely contested seats could influence the final distribution of parliamentary seats.
