For some time now, the national government in Berlin has been casting anxious glances beyond the city limits.
Surrounded by the states of what used to be the communist east, politicians in the capital are about to witness a lurch to the right on its own doorstep.
A damaged election poster shows German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Frankfurt. Pic: AP
What are people voting for?
This September, voters in three of Germany’s 16 federal states are casting their ballots.
All of them lie in the east: Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg.
Coming a year before national elections, the three states could act as a bellwether.
Sweeping gains by the far-right would be bad news for Olaf Scholz’s embattled left-leaning government.
Are they likely to result in a change of regional government?
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), a eurosceptic, anti-immigration, Russia-friendly party that is against military support for Ukraine and would like to see Germany out of the EU and NATO, is leading in the polls in all three states.
But even if it ends up winning the biggest share of the vote, it is unlikely to lead a government in any of them.
It is predicted to fall short of an outright majority, and all other parties have vowed not to form a coalition government with the party.
But, with such a significant chunk of the vote going to the AfD, it will be a challenge to form a functioning coalition in regional parliaments.
People wave German flags during an AfD rally for the Saxony state elections in Dresden. Pic: Reuters
Bjoern Hoecke, AfD leader, in Thuringia, where polls say his party could take 29% of the vote. Pic: Reuters
The most likely outcome will be minority governments that rely on the opposition to push through legislation.
While not uncommon on a state level, they are regarded as ineffective and beneficial to extremist opposition parties – and could boost the AfD further.
What’s believed to be behind rise in support?
East Germany has been a fertile breeding ground for the far-right since reunification.
After four decades of communist rule, east Germany’s economy and development still lag behind the more prosperous West, creating resentment and a feeling of being left behind.
But, this trend has been turbocharged by consecutive shocks to the system: the arrival of mass migration from war-torn Syria in 2015, the coronavirus pandemic, and the economic and social fallout from war in Ukraine.
These crises have propelled the AfD from the fringes into the political mainstream.
Polling in second place nationally, the party is set to become the dominant force in regional elections in the three eastern states.
Has last week’s attack in Solingen impacted the race?
The horrific knife attack in Solingen, allegedly by an asylum seeker, has blown winds into the sails of the AfD a week before polls open in Thuringia and Saxony.
The party wasted no time exploiting fears of Islamist terrorism and linking it to migration.
A police officer stands as a vehicle leaves the scene after a suspect was detained following the knife attack in Solingen. Pic: Reuters
Police and ambulances gather in Solingen. Pic: AP
However, it has had its work cut out thanks to the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU), who lead the polls nationwide while trailing the AfD in the east.
CDU chief Friedrich Merz has called for stricter border controls to curb migration, a measure that would contravene EU law.
He has also demanded that failed asylum seekers from Syria and Afghanistan be deported.
Both are long-held AfD positions.
The Solingen knife attack suspect being transported after appearing in court on Sunday. Pic: Uli Deck/picture-alliance/dpa/AP
It’s not the first time the established parties have sought to stymie the AfD’s momentum.
Last year, Chancellor Scholz vowed that Germany would begin deporting “in a big way”.
Critics say, that by adopting AfD policies, mainstream parties will not diminish its popularity and argue that the original proponents will be rewarded by voters at the ballot box.
Another view is that the rise of the AfD is a symptom of a wider problem that successive governments have failed to tackle.
Germany receives almost a third of migrants to the EU, leading to widespread unease in the electorate.
What would rise in support mean for Scholz?
With the country in shock in the wake of the deadly terror attack in Solingen, curbing migration and increasing deportations will be a priority for the government.
It can count on the opposition CDU to push through laws that might have been unpalatable before.
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Already on Thursday, the government announced a range of measures designed to deport asylum seekers to the EU state that they first set foot in.
Then on Friday, the government said it had deported 28 convicted criminals to Afghanistan, the first such deportations since 2021.
If these achieve tangible results fast, it may give Mr Scholz’s flailing government some breathing room as national elections draw near.
If they don’t, the AfD’s rise is set to continue.
