Upstream petroleum sector at a critical juncture : An interview with the CEO of the Ghana Upstream Petroleum Chamber

Over the last few weeks there have been several news reports on the decline in the production of oil in Ghana for some time now. In this interview, David Ampofo provides some insight into the reasons why and what the country can do to reverse the decline.

Q: How would you characterise the current phase of the oil industry?

Ghana’s upstream sector is at a strategic inflection point. We have moved from the early high-growth phase into a temporary decline. National oil production began in 2010 and peaked at about 195,000 barrels per day in 2018. However, this growth could not be sustained, and production has since fallen. Crude oil production has declined for the sixth consecutive year, from 71.44 million barrels in 2019 to 37.3 million barrels in 2025, representing an average annual decline of 9%.

Considering the string of exploration successes from Jubilee since its discovery in 2007, the discoveries in the TEN area between 2012 and 2014, and the Sankofa Gye-Nyame discoveries in 2016, one can safely say that Ghana’s sedimentary basins still have much to offer.

Q: So what could have driven the decline of production for the 6th year?

The country’s petroleum production growth could have been maintained with more exploration investments and activities to boost output. Unfortunately, the country suffered some setbacks that prevented it from achieving what was expected after the first decade or so of oil production. There are several issues that knocked us off track.

For one, Ghana suffered a significant distraction from upstream interests and activities due to the Eni-Springfield unitisation debacle. It did not help us at all.

Again, our inability to fully complete and execute the 2018 licensing round awards was a major missed opportunity to attract fresh exploration investment into the industry. We simply got it wrong, resulting in very little interest from potential investors and a delay in consummating what little interest there was.

The sudden exit of a major international oil company such as ExxonMobil from the country was another negative development for the industry in Ghana. It was not only a loss of an investment opportunity but also a wrong signal to the world about our attractiveness as an investment destination.

And then there is the case of Pecan. Our inability to transform the string of successful discoveries in the Pecan block, previously held by Hess, into a producing asset, more than a decade after the discoveries, may have cost the country far more than we realise.

Last but not least, the time lapse between a country’s signal that it plans to revisit its fiscal regime and the new legislation’s actual implementation can be a lost opportunity that may never be recovered.  Hopefully, this is all now behind us, and there is a clear opportunity at the moment to refocus the industry for a fresh takeoff.

Q: How can Ghana reverse the decline in oil production

Reversing Ghana’s oil production decline requires a targeted mix of technical, investment, and policy actions; not a single fix. The strategy should focus on extracting more from existing fields while bringing new barrels online quickly.

Firstly, let’s maximise recovery from existing fields. This will deliver the fastest short-term impact. Fields such as Jubilee, TEN, and Sankofa still hold significant recoverable reserves. An aggressive program for new production wells could stabilise output and increase it within one to three years. It’s good to know that the committed new investments by the current operators are intended to address this.

Secondly, let’s accelerate new field development for medium-term growth. We must move discoveries into production faster, especially projects like Pecan and ENI’s Eban-Akoma. We should encourage cluster development by tying back to existing hubs where necessary.

Thirdly, harnessing marginal fields is another practical way to add incremental barrels, but it requires a deliberate policy and execution model tailored to smaller, cost-sensitive developments. We can create a dedicated marginal field framework that does not subject marginal assets to standard petroleum terms. Marginal fields need lighter economies of scale to be viable. We should ensure they are inexpensive to develop, quick to approve, and appealing to smaller, specialised operators, while leveraging existing infrastructure. There are certainly satellite barrels waiting to be unlocked around existing infrastructure.

Enhancing fiscal stability, regulatory predictability and reviving exploration, boost investor confidence and are vital to reversing Ghana’s decline in oil production. Upstream capital tends to flow to regions with predictable terms and well-managed risks. In essence, let’s squeeze more oil from existing fields, bring new projects online faster, and create a stable, attractive environment for sustained investment.

Given all that you have just said, why should any investor consider Ghana for upstream investment once again?

Don’t forget that this is the country that delivered the single largest oil discovery in the world in 2007. It would be strange if that was the only major oilfield out there. In my view, Ghana’s full potential is yet to be exploited.

Between 2007 and 2017, Ghana’s sedimentary basins not only discovered fields, but also saw the successful appraisal and delivery of 3 world-class developments for oil and gas production, demonstrating not only hydrocarbon potential but also execution capability. I’m referring to our current Jubilee, TEN and Sankofa Gye-Nyame oilfields.

Also, the recent successful discoveries of the Baliene, Calao and Calao South fields on the Ivorian side of our border confirms the rich potential of the larger Ghana-Cote D’Ivoire basin. These new fields alone are estimated to hold about 5 billion barrels of oil equivalent.

There’s also the commitment of the current administration to reinvigorate the industry but it has to be fast-tracked.

Q: Are the current operators doing enough?

Ghana has secured two major upstream investment commitments from current operators- one from the Jubilee/TEN partners and another from Eni and its OCTP partners. Together, these commitments are central to reversing production decline.

The partners in the Jubilee and TEN fields have committed about $2 billion to drill new wells, expand subsea infrastructure and improve recovery from existing fields to stabilise and increase output. At the same time, Eni and its OCTP partners have signed an agreement to invest about $1.5 billion to expand oil and gas production, develop the Eban-Akoma field, and strengthen the integrated offshore-onshore gas infrastructure under the Sankofa Field project. Together, these investments provide short-term production support, medium-term capacity growth and improved energy security.

For Ghana, in the short term, the opportunity lies in near-field exploration, infill drilling, enhanced oil recovery, and infrastructure-led development. Smaller, incremental barrels, when done efficiently, can deliver significant cumulative value.

The current operators are optimising within constraints, leveraging enhanced recovery techniques and cost discipline. However, global capital allocation has tightened, and Ghana must compete for it. They are drilling new wells, improving reservoir pressure through injection and facility upgrades, planning new developments such as Eban-Akoma, and performing maintenance and integrity work on FPSOs and subsea systems. These actions have helped stabilise current production. The operators are actively working to optimise existing fields to slow the decline. While they contribute to the solution, they cannot resolve the issue alone. Reversing the decline depends on collaboration between operators and the government, sustained investment, and new discoveries.

Q: Any upstream investment potential on the horizon?

As mentioned earlier, Jubilee, TEN, and OCTP partners have committed $3.5 billion in investment over the next few years, and we anticipate even more. The renewed interest from major companies like ExxonMobil and Shell in Ghana’s upstream sector is strategically important because it indicates a shift from decline to opportunity. Several other oil firms, including CNOOC, Petrobras, and Chevron, have also shown interest in the country, and the obvious hurdle to establishing petroleum agreements is the completion and approval of the new proposed regime. This window of renewed interest must not be missed – we must complete this exercise promptly.

Although investors seek competitive fiscal terms, what is critical is predictability and swift approval processes. While Ghana remains stable, we must strengthen contract sanctity, streamline regulatory procedures, and increase commercial flexibility. New frontiers such as Namibia and high-growth regions like Guyana are attracting investment due to large discoveries and attractive economics. Ghana’s strengths include proven systems and lower geological risk, but we must enhance our competitiveness through predictive and efficient sector management.

Q: What is happening in the gas space? 

Ghana’s gas sector is the strongest-performing part of its energy system right now, and it’s becoming the anchor of the entire energy strategy. New investments are expanding the gas supply. The challenge has been aligning market structure and infrastructure, not resource availability. There is a need for stronger linkage between upstream gas and power-sector demand, commercially viable pricing frameworks, and investment in processing and transportation infrastructure. Also, whilst attempting to improve the availability of natural gas on the Ghanaian market, care must be taken to always prioritise the commercialisation and utilisation of domestic gas.

Although infrastructure is improving, it remains a constraint. Processing capacity, pipeline capacity, and gas evacuation bottlenecks persist. Fix this, and gas can anchor energy security, drive industrialisation, and position Ghana as a regional energy hub. Gas could be the foundation of Ghana’s energy security and industrialisation.

Q: What are your top priorities for the industry at this time?

As CEO of the Ghana Upstream Petroleum Chamber, my priorities are to drive a three-part agenda:

Help restore and sustain investor confidence. Without capital inflow, nothing else moves. For your information, the Ministry of Energy and Green Transition is undertaking a comprehensive legislative reform of the upstream petroleum sector to strengthen fiscal terms and improve regulatory clarity. My most urgent priority is to expedite the approval process to enable international oil companies and others who have expressed interest to sign Petroleum Agreements and commence work.

Work closely with operators to optimise output from existing assets, while proactively assisting with identifying and resolving technical, regulatory, and infrastructure bottlenecks that constrain the industry’s growth.

Act as a bridge to accelerate gas commercialisation discussions, better align upstream gas supply with demand, and strengthen payment guarantees for gas producers.

But time is of the essence. Ghana’s upstream sector is not running out of resources.  It is running out of time.

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